Decoding Black Swans and Other Historic Risk Events - Thekdi, Shital; Aven, Terje; - Prospero Internet Bookshop

Decoding Black Swans and Other Historic Risk Events: Themes of Progress and Opportunity for Risk Science
 
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ISBN13:9781032567631
ISBN10:1032567635
Binding:Hardback
No. of pages:138 pages
Size:234x156 mm
Weight:412 g
Language:English
Illustrations: 26 Illustrations, black & white; 20 Halftones, black & white; 6 Line drawings, black & white; 1 Tables, black & white
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Decoding Black Swans and Other Historic Risk Events

Themes of Progress and Opportunity for Risk Science
 
Edition number: 1
Publisher: CRC Press
Date of Publication:
 
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Short description:

The field of risk science is continuously evolving to develop principles and practices that people to manage future risk. Risk and uncertainty are prevalent yet, it is important to consider what is on the horizon, anticipate the possibility of future events, its consequences, our vulnerability to those events, and how to recover from them.

Long description:

The field of risk science continues to learn from the long history of events to develop principles and practices that enable individuals, organizations, and societies to understand and manage future risk. Reflecting on these histories reminds us that risk and uncertainty are prevalent, yet it remains important to consider what is on the horizon: the possibility of future events, the consequences of those events, our vulnerability to those events, and how to recover from those events.


Decoding Black Swans and Other Historic Risk Events offers a guide to understanding risk events and how to act before they occur. This book explores past risk events and analyzes how risk science principles apply to those events and studies whether current risk science concepts and approaches could potentially have avoided, reduced the impact, or supported recovery following the risk event. New insights are obtained by applying recent research progress in understanding and managing risk, considering aspects including quality of evidence, information, and misinformation in risk studies. The analysis results are used to identify how risk science approaches contribute to the overall management of risk and societal safety, and where improvements can be obtained, allowing the reader to possess a toolkit for identifying and planning for unsafe events.


This title will be a critical read for professionals in the fields of occupational health and safety, risk management, civil engineering, mechanical engineering, energy, marine engineering, environmental engineering, business and management, and healthcare.

Table of Contents:

Foreword          


About the Authors        


Acknowledgments


Chapter 1: Framework Used to decode the Risk Events


Chapter 2: Historical Events to be Decoded     


Global Pandemics        


Industrial Accidents    


Infrastructure Failures 


Natural Disasters          


Acts of Terrorism and War         


Food Safety      


Chapter 3: Historical Perspective on Risk          


Chapter 4: Historical Precedent for Remembering and Understanding Risk Issues        


Chapter 5: Characterization of Surprise and Unpredictability  


Chapter 6: Severity of Consequences in Relation to Uncertainties and Knowledge       


Titanic case ? Evaluation of Consequences     


Chapter 7: Uncertainty Characterizations        


Fukushima Daiichi Case ? Evaluation of Probabilistic Risk Assessment at Nuclear Plants          


Chapter 8: Types of Knowledge That Inform Understanding of Risk        


9/11 case ? Classification of Knowledge           


Chapter 9: Credibility of Knowledge     


Food Additives Case ? Credibility of Knowledge             


Chapter 10: Factors Influencing Understanding and Communication of Risk, Uncertainties, and Probabilities   


Cuyahoga River Fire ? Communication of Risk-Related Information       


Chapter 11: Biases, Misinformation, and Disinformation


Biases and Moral Hazards ? East Palestine Train Derailment and Similar Freight Accidents


COVID-19 Misinformation and Disinformation 


Chapter 12: Balancing Various Dimensions of a Risk Application


BP Oil Spill ? Dimensions of Risk for Oil and Gas Operations and Related Regulation


Chapter 13: The Weight Given to Resilience


Hurricane Katrina ? Why New Orleans Was Vulnerable and How Resilience Emerged


Chapter 14: The Big Picture of Risk Science Surrounding Major Historical Events


Tornadoes ? The Big Picture Around Risk Issues


Smoking, Social Media, and Processed Foods ? Linking Three Global Risk Issues


Chapter 15: How Risk Science Improves the Ability to Address the Gaps in the Themes Presented


Chapter 16: Who Is the Risk Analyst and What Are the Expectations


Chapter 17: Unresolved Issues in Risk Science Identified in the Presented Themes


Abraham Lincoln Assassination ? Hindsight Bias versus Noise Leading to a Risk Event


Chapter 18: Conclusions


Further Reading


Index